Monday, July 2, 2018

FIFA World Cup - Round of 16 - Predictions for Day 3

5) Brazil take on mercurial Mexico at Samara Arena, in the round of 16. Mexico got off to a very strong start by stunning favourite Germany 1-0, in their first game of Group F, & then posting a solid win over resolute South Korea, before getting steamrolled by Sweden 3-0 in the last game. However, Germany exited to a shock 0-2 defeat to South Korea, in their last game, to allow Mexico to sneak into the round of 16.
However, win probability meter gives Brazil a thumping 65% chance, while Mexico gets 12% chance of creating an upset. The two teams have met 40 times previously with Brazil winning 23 times & Mexico winning 10 times. In World Cup, they have met four times till now, with Brazil winning three of them & one ending in a draw. Brazil has reached the QF stage every time since 1990.
Probable line up for Mexico is expected to be the ever reliable Ochoa under the bars; while Salcedo, Hugo Ayala, Alvarez & Gallardo will man the defence; Herrera, Lozano, Captain Guardado, Layun & Vela would manage the midfield & Javier Chicharito Hernandes would stay upfront. They would sorely miss the services of experienced & reliable centre back Hector Moreno, out with two yellow cards. Coach Carlos Osorio would be hoping that his creaky defence is able to hold fort against the marauding Selecao forward line.
Brazil will be missing the experience of injured Marcelo, substitute though Filipe Luis seems to have settled quite well with the playing eleven. Coach Tite does have some injury issues, but he will most probably go with the tried & tested line up of Alisson under the bar, with Fagner, Thiago Silva, Miranda & Filipe Luis at the back; while Paulinho, Casemiro, & Coutinho will roam the midfield; & Neymar, Jesus & Willian as forwards. The bench has enough reserves to cover up for any exigencies.
Brazil, will see this game as one they should win. The forward line has enough firepower & is not dependent on one Neymar, while the defence looks solid as of now.

6) Belgium will be against minnows Japan, at Rostov Arena, in the second game of the evening. Belgium come to this match, with a perfect three win slate in the Group stages, notching up emphatic wins against Tunisia & Panama, before overcoming England, in a match where both teams fielded second string players. Japan on the other hand entered round of 16, by nudging out Senegal through fair play rules, something that has happened for the first time in World Cup. On the win probability meter, Belgium enjoy a resounding 70% chance to win, while Japan are far far behind with just 10% chance.
Belgium would probably go with Thibaut Courtois in goal; with Jan Vertonghen, Vincent Kompany (coming back from an injury), Toby Alderweireld, & Witsel in defence; & De Bruyne, Carrasco, Meunier & Mertens in midfield; while in form Lukaku & Eden Hazard storm ahead for goals.
Japan would probably field, Eiji Kawashima in goal; Hiroki Sakai, Yoshida, Gen Shoji, & Nagatomo at the back; Makoto Hasebe, Shibasaki, Haraguchi & Kagawa in midfield & Takashi Inui & Osako upfront.
On paper, Belgium, touted by many as the 'dark horse' of the tournament, should make merry of this match & win comfortably. However, this World Cup has already seen too many upsets, & the Coach of this European outfit, Roberto Martinez, would certainly play with guarded caution.





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