Friday, June 29, 2018

FIFA World Cup 2018 - Round of 16 - Predictions for Day 1

1) Argentina vs France : The elimination round of 16, starts in spectacular fashion with a resurgent Argentina taking on a far from convincing France, at the Kazan Arena, in a mouth watering prospect. While the win probability meter gives France a 40% chance to a 29% for Argentina, the final results could well be very different. The South Americans hold an upper hand with six wins to two & three draws, in their previous eleven encounters. However, penalty shoot outs excluded, France have lost only once in their last eleven games at the knockout stages of the World Cup - interesting stats those for both sides to take encouragements from.
On paper, the expected French line up looks formidable enough, with reliable Lloris managing the bars; Hernandez, Umtiti, Varane & Pavard shape the solid defence; as Pogba & Kante marshal the midfield; & Matuidi, Griezmann & Mbappe in the front to feed Giroud for goals. Coach Didier Deschamps would feel quite happy with the firepower of this young & fit Les Bleus line up, as the reserve bench boasts of stars like Dembele, Fekir, Mendy, Tolisso etc.
For Argentina, the expected line up looks like Armani in the goal; with a four man defence of Tagliafico, Roji, Otamendi & Mercado; four man midfield of Di Maria, Banega, Mashcherano & Perez; with Higuian & Messi at the top. The strong reserve bench has, Acuna in defence, Pavon, Enzo, Biglia in midfield & Dybala & Aguero as forwards. Coach, Sampaoli needs to curb his nervous outbursts on the sidelines & use the reserve strength, especially Dybala, Pavon & Aguero intelligently to crack the formidable French citadel. Having come back from the brink of elimination, the ageing Argentinians will hope for an encore from their talisman captain, Leo Messi.
While, on paper & on current form, France certainly look the better of the sides, & are also one of the pre tournament favourites, Argentina, may tip the scales, under mesmerising Messi - one touch, one dummy & he may take the Albiceleste beyond....something that millions of fans worldwide are hoping for.

2) Uruguay vs Portugal : In another of the humdingers in this elimination round, at Fisht Olympic Stadium, both Uruguay & Portugal have a 34% chance of winning, as per the win probability meter. However, Portugal have lost their last three games in world Cup knockout stages, with a heavy 0-4 defeat at the hands of eventual Champions Germany in 2014. Uruguay, on the other hand, are yet to concede a goal in this World Cup & will be looking at winning their fourth consecutive game, since 1930, when they eventually became the Champions.
Suarez & Ronaldo have faced each other umpteenth times in El Classico duels between Barcelona & Real Madrid, but this is the first time they face each other, representing their country.
On paper, the European Champions Portugal are expected to line up, a redoubtable Patricio under the bars; with Raphael, Fonte, Pepe & Cedric manning the defence; as Quaresma, Carvalho, Moutinho & Silva control the midfield; & Ronaldo and Guedes look for goals upfront. The reserve bench has Bruno Alves, Semedo, Guirreiro, Mario Rui in defence, Andre Gomez, Bruno Fernandes in midfield, Eder, Martins, Nani etc in the frontline & others.
Uruguay is expected to field regular keeper Muslera under the bars; supported by Caceres, Captain Godin, Giminez & Laxalt in defence; while Rodriguez, Bentancur, Vecino & Torreira oversee the midfield & Suarez and Cavani look for goals upfront. The reserve bench has Valera, Coates, Silva in defence, Nandez, Carlos Andres in midfield, & Gomez and Stuani as forwards. Coach Oscar Tabarez has been incharge since 2006 & knows the strength of his players very well.
Portugal would be looking at Cristiano Ronaldo to spearhead the attack & score, as freely as he does, though the over-dependence on one man could be their falling in the knock out stages. Coach Fernando Santos, needs to find someone else to step up, beside Ronaldo for goals & also inspire their central defence under the ageing Pepe & Fonte, who are well past their prime. On the other hand, Uruguay have Suarez & Cavani, both exceptional predators in the box, along with Bentancur & overlapping Giminez, who can carry La Celeste ahead, while ever dependable Godin is expected to foil Ronaldo.
The game will be a battle of nerves & the better organised Latin Americans may just nose ahead.

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